November 30, 2021

Weekly Oracle

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Deficit and Brexit, “perfect storm” hits England

Sorry, irregular, An hour from the capital we wrote at all the pumps at a gas station next to the highway.

These little signs, which have been a part of the daily lives of British consumers for the past few weeks, illustrate the interruptions in the supply chains that the country has to fight.

Gas stations in the UK have been evacuated from their products in frustration with motorists.

Photo: Radio-Canada / Rafael Poovier-Aguilar

The root of many problems: Lack of trucks, lack of resources and supply of goods to businesses.

Department of Transportation, this one Disaster situationIt is estimated that up to 100,000 of these truck drivers have gone missing on country roads due to the effects of the epidemic and Brexit. According to Jonathan Portes, professor of economics at King’s College London, the shortage was actually explained by the delay in training caused by COVID-19, but also by the range of labor movements due to Brexit.

Since the UK officially withdrew from the European Union on January 1, 2020, workers from across the continent need a visa.

Many have returned home during epidemics. This has nothing to do with Brexit. But now they choose not to come back, it is due to Brexit.

A quote:Jonathan Fortes is Professor of Economics at King’s College London
Portrait of Jonathan Portes

Jonathan Fortes, Professor of Economics at King’s College

Photo: Radio-Canada / Rafael Poovier-Aguilar

The transport sector is not alone in dealing with this new reality. The butcheries, which are heavily dependent on workers from Eastern Europe, have difficulty operating.

This creates a big problem, with some animals flocking to the farms, Norwich pork producer Simon Watson talks about the impact of labor shortages at meat processing centers.

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For 15 years we lost access to workers from Europe to help pluck chickens., Explains Paul Kelly, a turkey breeder we met at one of his farms in Dunbury, east of London.

Paul Kelly in a field.

Epidemic and scarcity in the UK

Photo: Radio-Canada / Rafael Poovier-Aguilar

For a while, he feared that this labor shortage would threaten production in preparation for the busiest season of the year.

Boris Johnson’s Conservative government has finally agreed to issue a few thousand visas to foreign workers who could take part in the process of transitioning to Turkey in the next few weeks.

Paul Kelly explains that if he believes the move will save the holiday season, this year’s deficit will have even more consequences.

In anticipation of labor shortages, British producers plan to sell 500,000 fewer turkeys in 2021 than in 2020. A year after the UK left the EU, these are French products or the British at Christmas that can be at the table of some Dutch.

The contradiction is incredible, Paul Kelly.

Free distance turkeys

Free distance turkeys

Photo: Radio-Canada / Rafael Poovier-Aguilar

Army for rescue

While seemingly underestimating the scope of the deficit facing the country, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government recently announced some measures to keep supply chains running smoothly.

Earlier this week, the military was called in to provide gas stations with problems, causing panic among motorists.

Members of the British Army were assigned to deliver petrol to a gas station.

Members of the British Army were assigned to deliver petrol to a gas station.

Photo: Reuters / Hannah McKay

In addition to the visas issued to workers in the poultry sector, London has announced that a few thousand work permits will be issued to foreign truckers.

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As for the number of HGV drivers required for the UK, It doesn’t solve the problem, maybe it’s a bandage, Says Jonathan Fordes, professor of economics at King’s College.

He said the problems that make headlines in Britain today have been predictable for some time.

Brexit means Brexit, which means higher trade barriers and barriers to migration between the UK and the rest of Europe. This is not a disaster, we can continue to trade with Europe, but it will be more complicated and expensive, He explains.

Removed shelves.

Removed shelves, increasingly current reality

Photo: Radio-Canada / Rafael Poovier-Aguilar

In addition, representatives of other sectors of the British economy lamented that they had been ignored. Despite the demands of pork producers and restaurants, the industry relies heavily on workers from across the continent, and no new visas have been announced for these sectors.

We may have to reduce our operations due to employee issues, Says Charles Tyler, owner of Baldar Restaurant in London, explaining that other companies in the capital have recently been forced to reduce opening hours.

Can’t they see the reality? Apparently, it looks like they have their heads in the sand.

A quote:Charles Tyler, owner of the Bridal Restaurant

What are the political implications for Boris Johnson?

How does the British government want to control the situation in the long run?

Prime Minister Boris Johnson responded as part of a conference of his political party, the Conservative Party, in Manchester this week.

Ensuring that current difficulties are the main cause Growth and economic recovery, The head of government called for a transformation of the British economy.

The answer to these problems […] Do not seek unrestricted immigration and low wages.

A quote:Boris Johnson, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom

According to Tristan de Bourbon-Barme, journalist and author of the book Boris Johnson, grieving European, The Prime Minister is trying to change the situation in his favor with these words.

He says Brexit’s intended to control borders so that Europeans can no longer come, so wages are rising because of labor shortages., He explains.

Tristan de Bourbon-Burma believes Boris Johnson is taking a dangerous bet if he appears to be preferred by an opposition party that appears to have difficulty winning the debate.

Journalist and writer Tristan de Bourbon-Pharma

Tristan de Bourbon-Farme is the author of the book “Boris Johnson, a Defeated European”.

Photo: Radio-Canada / Rafael Poovier-Aguilar

I met many delegates during Congress, he said: We need solid evidence that the country is changing, He explains.

Boris Johnson and his troops have a window two years ahead of them as the next British parliamentary election is set to take place in the spring of 2024.

Some, like restaurant charles Tyler, do not have the patience to wait for the economic change promised by Prime Minister Johnson.

Now there is a problem and the government has to solve it, He says.

In addition to the problems in recruiting employees, the trader has to deal with his electricity tariff hike because, like other countries in Europe, the United Kingdom is facing a rise in energy prices.

According to him, this will inevitably have an upward impact on the consumer bill Perfect storm, Due to epidemic and Brexit, blows in his country.